This Week’s Mortgage Rate Projections – November 27, 2023

As we approach the festive season, the economic landscape experiences a lull, with only a handful of noteworthy reports in the limelight. This week’s focal point revolves around the U.S. economic leading indicators, offering insights into the nation’s economic trajectory. Notably, the week is marked by a pause in scheduled reports around the Thanksgiving weekend.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators: Synopsis: The leading economic index dipped by 0.8% in October, extending its decline for the 19th consecutive month. Despite this prolonged decrease, the U.S. economy maintains a resilient stance, seemingly distant from an imminent recession.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index: Week-to-Week Declines: In the mortgage market, the past four weeks have witnessed a consistent decline in rates. The 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (FRM) experiences a week-to-week decrease of -0.09%, with the current rate resting at 6.67%. Meanwhile, the 30-Year FRM records a -0.15% decline, presenting a current rate of 7.29%.

MND Rate Index: FHA and VA Rates: The MND Rate Index notes a week-to-week reduction in 30-Year Federal Housing Administration (FHA) rates, reflecting a -0.12% decrease with the current rate at 6.65%. Similarly, 30-Year Veterans Affairs (VA) rates see a -0.13% dip for the week, settling at 6.65%.

Jobless Claims: Positive Employment Trend: U.S. jobless claims reach a five-week low, standing at 209,000. Initial Claims showcase a notable decrease to 209,000 compared to the anticipated 229,000, with the preceding week’s figure at 218,000.

What’s Ahead: Post-Thanksgiving Outlook: With Thanksgiving festivities behind us, the upcoming week anticipates addresses from several Federal Reserve chairmen. Additionally, the release of Q3 GDP data is on the horizon. Economic enthusiasts can also look forward to insights into Personal Income Spending and the PCE Index, offering a glimpse into the economy at a personal level. Finally, the ISM manufacturing report, while modest, remains a valuable indicator of production capacity across various trade sectors.

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