Mortgage Rate Forecast This Week – January 2nd, 2024

With the arrival of the New Year, the past week offered a familiar set of economic reports, including Jobless Claims, S&P Shiller Home Price Index (YoY), and the Chicago Business Barometer. However, these reports are expected to pale in significance when compared to the eagerly anticipated GDP and Inflation data reports, which have already been unveiled.

S&P Shiller Home Price Index (YoY) Continues Record-Breaking Surge

In a remarkable streak lasting nine consecutive months, home prices in major U.S. metropolitan areas have soared to unprecedented heights. This surge can be attributed to the persistent shortage of available homes for sale. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house-price index, after seasonal adjustments, showed a 0.6% increase in October compared to the previous month, reaffirming the ongoing boom in the housing market.

Chicago Business Barometer Falls Short of Expectations

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, witnessed a notable drop of 8.9 index points in December, settling at 46.9. This figure fell short of the 50 reading forecasted by economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. It’s worth noting that the index had surged to 55.8 in November, marking its highest level in 17 months following the conclusion of the United Auto Workers strike.

Mortgage Rate Updates

15-Yr FRM Rates: This week saw a slight decrease of -0.02%, bringing the current rate to 5.93%.

30-Yr FRM Rates: Similarly, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages experienced a decrease of -0.06%, with the current rate standing at 6.61%.

MND Rate Index Shows Modest Adjustments

The MND Rate Index reported subtle changes in rates for various mortgage options:

30-Yr FHA Rates: These saw a minor decrease of -0.04% for the week, with current rates at 6.08%.

30-Yr VA Rates: Likewise, 30-year VA rates witnessed a -0.04% decrease for the week, with current rates now at 6.09%.

Jobless Claims Remain Steady

Initial Jobless Claims for the week were reported at 218,000, slightly exceeding the expected figure of 215,000. The previous week had seen 206,000 claims, indicating a stable but slightly elevated level of jobless claims.

Looking Ahead

Next week, the economic calendar appears relatively light, with the standout report being the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. These reports will provide crucial insights into inflation rates for the month of December, making them highly anticipated releases in the financial markets.

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